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Does This First Bucks Game Really Matter? Kind Of.

An old adage about the NBA season revolves around the fact that it’s a long one, and that you have to be in it for the long haul if you want to make any noise. No one win will lead you to a championship (except Game 7 of the Finals, of course), nor will any one loss sink your championship hopes (see above). Any team that wants to make the playoffs needs to put together a solid performance in 82 games, and focusing on any one game will get a team nowhere.

But surely it’s a different story when it comes to the first game, right? After all, conventional wisdom says the first game is the first chance a team really gets to show what they’re made of, and it sets the tone for the rest of the season. Let’s see how every Bucks season in this millennium stands up to conventional wisdom:

Season First Opponent First Game Result Overall Record Playoffs?
2015-2016 New York Knicks Loss, 122-97 33-49 No
2014-2015 Charlotte Hornets Loss, 108-106 (OT) 41-41 Yes
2013-2014 New York Knicks Loss, 90-83 15-67 No
2012-2013 Boston Celtics Win, 99-88 38-44 Yes
2011-2012 Charlotte Bobcats Loss, 96-95 31-35 No
2010-2011 New Orleans Hornets Loss, 95-91 35-47 No
2009-2010 Philadelphia 76ers Loss, 99-86 46-36 Yes
2008-2009 Chicago Bulls Loss, 108-95 34-48 No
2007-2008 Orlando Magic Loss, 102-83 26-56 No
2006-2007 Detroit Pistons Win, 105-97 28-54 No
2005-2006 Philadelphia 76ers Win, 117-108 (OT) 40-42 Yes
2004-2005 Orlando Magic Loss, 93-92 30-52 No
2003-2004 Minnesota Timberwolves Loss, 95-89 41-41 Yes
2002-2003 Philadelphia 76ers Loss, 95-93 42-40 Yes
2001-2002 Utah Jazz Win, 119-112 (OT) 41-41 No
2000-2001 Dallas Mavericks Loss, 97-93 52-30 Yes

In this 16-year span, the Bucks reached the playoffs seven times. The seven playoff teams went 2-5 (29%) in their first games of the season, and the nine non-playoff teams went 2-7 (22%) in their season debuts. 29% is slightly better than 22%, but both sets of teams didn’t have much luck at all starting off their seasons. Even the 2000-2001 Bucks, easily one of Milwaukee’s best teams ever, started off their season with a close loss against the Mavericks.

Maybe the takeaway is that the Bucks just don’t kick off their seasons very well. This could be because they often have young rosters (or at least rosters filled with players new to the team), and the chemistry isn’t quite there yet. While this year’s edition of the Bucks is certainly young, they should be fairly used to playing with each other by now, for the most part at least. Perhaps Bucks fans can start hoping for a win against the Hornets to start the season with a good showing.

Even if they don’t win, Bucks fans should hope for a close game. Of the five playoff teams who started the season with a loss, only one lost by more than six points. By contrast, of the seven non-playoff Bucks teams who started their seasons with a loss, four lost by more than six points, and three lost by double digits.

It seems that neither a win nor a loss in the first game of a season is a very helpful predictive factor for a team’s playoff hopes. A win or a close loss, however, might come closer to being a helpful predictor. In other words, if the Bucks get blown out against the Hornets on Wednesday night, it might not bode well for the rest of the season. Any other result, though, could mean the Bucks are headed for a solid showing this season, or at least not an embarrassing one. Tune in at 7:00 PM CT to see for yourself!